Experts are warning that El Niño, which is rapidly intensifying over the Pacific Ocean, is set to become a major economic challenge for India in the months ahead. According to the latest estimates from the India Meteorological Department, rainfall this year is expected to be below normal at just 90 percent of the average — the lowest in three years. The situation is already critical, with the southwest monsoon stalling midway and failing to advance beyond Maharashtra. In the first two weeks of June alone, only 42.6mm of rain was recorded against the expected 72.2mm, creating a rainfall deficit of 41 percent. Central India has seen a 67 percent shortfall and the eastern and northeastern states a 42 percent deficit. With nearly 46 percent of India’s population still dependent on agriculture, the Agriculture Ministry warns that around 12 states — including Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu — could face severe consequences if conditions do not improve.
The warnings from international scientists are equally alarming for the Telugu states. While scattered rains have provided some temporary relief in June, the real threat is expected to intensify through July, August, and September as El Niño strengthens. Many districts in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana face the risk of drought-like conditions due to delayed and deficient rainfall. The IMD has already cautioned that Coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema, and several districts of Telangana are likely to experience prolonged and extreme heat waves. People may find themselves battling scorching temperatures and suffocating humidity even during what should be the peak of the rainy season.
El Niño is essentially the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, which disrupts wind patterns globally and triggers drought conditions across India. Historically, out of the 16 El Niño years recorded since 1950, seven have resulted in severe rainfall deficits in the country. What makes this year particularly worrying is that scientists believe a Super El Niño could be forming — one that could potentially be the strongest in 140 years, with consequences far beyond what past events have caused.
The concern in economic circles right now is less about crude oil prices and more about food prices. If crops fail due to inadequate rain, household budgets across the country will be thrown into disarray. The RBI, anticipating this risk, has already revised its inflation forecast for FY27 upward from 4.6 percent to 5.1 percent. Retail inflation had already reached 3.9 percent in May, and prices of tomatoes, green chillies, and cabbage have begun climbing in markets due to the intense heat and lack of rain. SBI Research has specifically flagged that tomato prices could skyrocket in the coming months because of El Niño. Economists warn that the weather changes unfolding right now are about to punch a very large hole in the pockets of ordinary people.