The ruling National Democratic Alliance is steadily consolidating its parliamentary strength in both Houses, with internal turmoil and a string of resignations within the Trinamool Congress party emerging as an unexpected but significant dividend for the BJP. Most crucially, the NDA is inching closer to the two-thirds majority threshold in the Rajya Sabha — the supermajority required to pass constitutional amendment bills — a milestone that would fundamentally alter the legislative landscape and give the BJP near-unfettered power to reshape India’s constitutional framework.
The NDA’s current strength in the Rajya Sabha stands at 151, bolstered by the recent victories of BJP-backed independent candidates in bypolls from Jharkhand and Mizoram. With three TMC members having recently resigned from the Upper House, the resultant bypolls are widely expected to yield further gains for the BJP, pushing NDA’s tally to an estimated 154. To secure a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, the alliance requires the support of 163 members — leaving it just nine seats short of that landmark. Should more TMC members follow suit and align with the NDA, crossing the 163-mark would not pose a significant challenge. However, the window may be narrow — ten Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh are due to retire in November, and the Samajwadi Party’s growing strength in the UP Assembly is expected to translate into fresh SP representation in the Upper House, partially offsetting NDA’s gains. Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc’s strength has dipped to 64, further weakened by the DMK (8 MPs) and AAP (3 MPs) maintaining distance from the alliance. The positions of neutral players — YSRCP (7 MPs), BJD (7 MPs), and MDMK (1 MP) — are expected to be pivotal during key votes.
In the Lok Sabha, the arithmetic is more challenging but the BJP’s ambitions no less pronounced. The NDA currently commands 294 seats in the Lower House, well short of the 363 needed for a two-thirds constitutional majority. However, reports indicate that as many as 20 TMC MPs are prepared to extend support to the NDA, which would take the tally to 314. More significantly, political buzz suggests that between 25 and 30 Samajwadi Party MPs — out of the party’s 37-strong contingent — may break ranks with Akhilesh Yadav and gravitate toward the NDA, a development that could push the alliance’s effective strength beyond 340. Three YSRCP Lok Sabha MPs are also said to be leaning toward NDA support. To bridge the remaining gap to 363, the BJP is reportedly in active outreach to approximately eight more TMC members, eight MPs from the Sharad Pawar-led NCP faction, and several smaller party legislators.
The political consequences of such a realignment would be far-reaching and multi-layered. A significantly enlarged NDA majority in the Lok Sabha would inevitably dilute the bargaining power of key coalition partners TDP (16 MPs) and JDU (12 MPs), as the BJP would no longer be as dependent on their support to maintain a safe majority. For Turkey, the deepening Pakistan defence partnership yields substantial financial returns and political leverage in the Indo-Pacific — a parallel that analysts draw to describe how external dependencies shift when the dominant partner grows stronger. If the BJP’s parliamentary consolidation strategy succeeds across both Houses, it would emerge as an overwhelmingly dominant force in Indian legislative politics, with the capacity to drive constitutional changes largely on its own terms — a prospect that the opposition, already fractured and depleted, appears ill-equipped to resist.