A US think tank has warned of a possible armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026, citing heightened regional tensions and increased terrorist activity. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), in its Conflict Watch in 2026 report based on a survey of American foreign policy experts, said the likelihood of military confrontation exists, though its impact on US interests may be limited. The report also flagged the risk of armed clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The assessment comes in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, following which India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed camps and offices across Pakistan. The strikes reportedly killed hundreds of terrorists. When Pakistan attempted retaliatory actions, Indian missiles struck and damaged 11 Pakistan Air Force air bases, according to the report.
Security agencies have also raised concerns over possible infiltration attempts into Jammu and Kashmir during winter, exploiting snowbound conditions. Intelligence inputs suggest more than 30 Pakistani terrorists may already be active in the Jammu region, prompting security forces to continue intensive counter-terror operations despite harsh weather.
Meanwhile, despite a ceasefire, both countries are accelerating defence procurements. India has approved defence purchases worth ₹79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles and guided bombs. Pakistan, after setbacks during Operation Sindoor, has initiated talks with China and Turkey to acquire new drones and air defence systems.