The devastation caused by the recent flash floods in Nepal continues to loom large, raising concerns over whether India could face a similar disaster. According to experts, the answer is yes. A warning issued by IIT Ropar and the University of Technology Sydney has identified 88 glacial lakes in India that are at a dangerous level, all of them located in Himachal Pradesh, with experts cautioning that a breach in any of these could cause severe damage across the state.
The Nepal disaster was triggered when ice masses broke off in the Bhote Koshi glacier, causing the river to suddenly swell and inflict massive damage. Experts warn that the 88 high-risk glacial lakes identified in Himachal Pradesh have the potential to cause even greater destruction. These lakes form at high altitudes in the Himalayas when meltwater from glaciers accumulates in nearby low-lying areas or behind natural rock walls, gradually forming a lake beneath a layer of ice, held back by natural dams made of ice, rock, and debris from landslides. If this natural barrier breaches—whether due to other causes or seismic activity dislodging ice and rock—the lake’s accumulated water, running into hundreds of thousands of cubic metres, can suddenly surge downstream, inundating the areas below. This sudden and destructive discharge of water is known as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
According to the report by IIT Ropar and the University of Technology Sydney, all 88 glacial lakes identified in Himachal Pradesh are at a highly dangerous level, with 9 classified as extremely hazardous, 18 as very highly hazardous, and 26 as hazardous. Of particular concern are the Himsu lake in the Beas basin and unnamed lakes in the Sutlej basin, both of which are at a fully hazardous level. Should the Himsu lake’s natural dam breach, it could release a flow of 1,385 cubic metres of water per second—translating to 1.4 million litres per second—capable of triggering massive flooding downstream.
A breach of the lake in the Sutlej basin could be even more catastrophic, releasing a flow of 3,507 cubic metres of water per second, equivalent to 3.5 million litres per second, potentially wiping out hundreds of structures in its path. Researchers say that, beyond identifying these risks and remaining constantly vigilant, there is currently little else that can be done to prevent such disasters.