Following the NDA’s victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP leadership has shifted focus to West Bengal, aiming to replicate electoral success in the state where the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been in power for three consecutive terms. The 2024 Assembly polls are expected to see a strong contest between the BJP and TMC.
Unlike Bihar, West Bengal presents distinct cultural and social dynamics, prompting uncertainty over whether the BJP’s Bihar strategy will translate effectively. In the 2011, 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC secured decisive victories, while the BJP failed to form the government despite an aggressive campaign centred on Hindu nationalism. With Muslims accounting for nearly 30% of the state’s population, the BJP is preparing to recalibrate its approach.
A Special Integrated Revision (SIR) of the voter list is currently underway in West Bengal. The BJP links its Bihar success partly to the elimination of alleged bogus votes during the SIR process and now expects the West Bengal revision to influence electoral outcomes. Of the state’s 294 Assembly seats, 40–50 are believed to be heavily influenced by Muslim voters. The BJP aims to focus on the remaining constituencies while also attempting to make inroads into Muslim-dominated seats that slipped from its grasp in the last election.
Party leaders believe that dissatisfaction with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s government exists even among sections of Muslim voters, citing incidents of political violence over the past three years. They expect anti-incumbency sentiment to benefit the BJP, especially among voters who traditionally turn to the Congress or Left when opposing the TMC.
The BJP leadership has reiterated that the party is not against Indian Muslims and opposes only infiltrators and undocumented Rohingya refugees. The party claims that Muslims in the state are supporting the SIR process designed to remove illegal names from the voter rolls.
With consecutive NDA victories in Maharashtra, Haryana and Bihar boosting the BJP’s momentum, political attention is now centred on whether the party can secure power in West Bengal when the Assembly elections take place next year.