As Delhi gears up for the Assembly elections on February 5, a wave of pre-poll surveys is stirring political conversations. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Congress are the key contenders in the race, with the national capital’s future government hanging in balance.
One of the latest pre-poll surveys by Phalodi Satta Bazar has projected AAP to win between 38 and 40 seats, a slight drop from previous predictions of 37-39 seats. The survey suggests that AAP, while still the leading party, is likely to see a reduction in its seat count compared to its victories in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections.
The BJP, which had been forecast to secure 31-33 seats earlier, is now estimated to win between 30 and 32 seats. This marks a significant shift in the political landscape, as the BJP is considered a formidable challenger to AAP’s dominance. Interestingly, the survey has predicted that Congress will fail to win any seats, down from an earlier estimate of 0-1 seats.
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Another pre-poll survey, conducted by WePreside, has projected a similar outcome, with AAP forecast to secure 50-55 seats, BJP expected to win between 15-20 seats, and Congress predicted to fail in securing a single seat. Both surveys indicate AAP’s likely victory, though challenges may affect the total number of seats won by the party.
Further insights come from a joint survey conducted by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organizations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media. This survey highlights AAP’s strong support among Dalit voters, with 44% of respondents indicating their preference for the party. The BJP garnered 32% of Dalit support, while 21% favored Congress. The survey anticipates that AAP will secure the majority of Dalit votes across 35 constituencies.
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Given the 12 reserved SC seats in the election, experts suggest that AAP is likely to benefit from significant support across different social groups, potentially securing a third consecutive term in office.
The Delhi Assembly elections will take place on February 5, 2025, with vote counting scheduled for February 8. Of the 70 constituencies, a minimum of 35 seats is required to form a majority government. Pre-poll surveys suggest a clear edge for AAP, but the final results will only be confirmed post-vote counting.