The election campaign in the United States has officially concluded, with polling beginning at midnight in several regions, including New Hampshire. In the lead-up to the election, exit polls have revealed their final surveys. While initial reports indicated a lead for Donald Trump, predictions emerged suggesting that Kamala Harris may be positioned to take the lead just one day prior to voting.
On the final campaign day, Harris gained significant momentum, reportedly securing 51% of the votes. A Yahoo News–YouGov poll indicated that both candidates would receive 47% of the votes. Similarly, a PBS News–NPR–Marist survey confirmed Harris’s lead, projecting her at 51% and Trump at 47%. The Morning Consult survey suggested Harris would receive 49% of the votes, while Trump would garner 46%. An Economist–YouGov poll estimated Harris would maintain a 3% lead, with 49% support for her compared to 47% for Trump.
Political analysts estimate that Harris has a 50.015% chance of winning, while Trump is projected to have a 49.985% chance, indicating a highly competitive race. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Harris showed a resurgence on the final day in regions that had previously leaned towards Trump. However, swing states remain highly contested, making precise predictions challenging.
The Harris–Ex-Forbes survey indicated that Harris is currently in the lead, with 49% support compared to 48% for Trump. Meanwhile, NBS News final polls indicated a tight race between Democrats and Republicans. The analysis noted that party leaders and abortion laws appear to favor Harris, while economic conditions and prices seem to benefit Trump.