China has once again set in motion what Indian security circles are describing as a major strategic conspiracy along India’s borders, with construction work already underway on a massive hydroelectric dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. The project, located a mere 50 kilometres from the Indian border, has triggered serious concern in New Delhi. Indian agencies that recently analysed the area through satellite imagery have concluded that river projects of this scale, built upstream on the other side of the border, could have severe long-term consequences for downstream regions within India. Despite these concerns, China has notably accelerated the pace of dam construction over the past several months.
The strategic and ecological stakes for India are considerable. The Yarlung Tsangpo, which originates in Tibet, enters India through Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang river before flowing into Assam as the Brahmaputra — a lifeline for millions of Indians. Experts have warned that the construction of such a massive dam upstream poses a serious threat to the natural flow of the river, with the potential to drastically alter flood patterns in downstream regions. The Indian government and its agencies have placed the project under close and sustained surveillance, cognisant of the far-reaching implications for water security in India’s northeast.
Behind the engineering ambition lies what analysts are calling a deliberate Chinese mind game. In the event of a future conflict or standoff between India and China, control over this upstream dam would hand Beijing a powerful strategic lever — the ability to either choke off water supply to India’s downstream regions or unleash sudden, devastating floods by releasing large volumes of water. Responding to questions in Parliament last year, Minister of State for External Affairs Kirthi Vardhan Singh confirmed that the government is in possession of reports regarding the mega dam’s construction and has been closely monitoring China’s plans in this regard for decades.
New Delhi has been engaging Beijing on all transboundary river-related issues through an Expert Level Mechanism established in 2006. Officials also revealed that External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar raised this serious matter directly with the Chinese side during his visit to China in July 2025 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. While Beijing continues to insist that the hydroelectric project is being built solely for power generation and will cause no harm to India, New Delhi has made clear that it is unwilling to take any risks given China’s track record — and that Dragon’s assurances alone are far from sufficient.