Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are approaching, with political activity intensifying across the state. Both the ruling and opposition parties are engaged in aggressive campaigning, creating a high-stakes environment. Amid growing anticipation over the electoral outcome, recent pre-poll surveys indicate a strong advantage for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, suggesting it could retain power.
According to a Lok Poll survey conducted between March 1 and April 1 among 117,000 respondents, the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 40.1% vote share and win between 181 and 189 seats in the 234-member विधानसभा. Welfare initiatives such as free bus travel for women and breakfast schemes in schools are cited as key factors driving support, particularly among women voters.
The most wanted #TamilNadu Survey is Out!
Here’s the vote share & seat projection from our mega ground survey:
▪️DMK+ 181–189 | 40.1%
▪️ADMK+ 38–42 | 29%
▪️TVK 8–10 | 23.9%
▪️NTK 00 | 4.9%
▪️Others 00 | 2.1%Sample size:… pic.twitter.com/5CuGQMwKpP
— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 1, 2026
The survey further projects that the opposition alliance led by All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam may secure around 29% vote share, translating into 38 to 42 seats. Meanwhile, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, contesting its first election, is expected to gain 23.9% vote share and win between 8 and 10 seats.
Poll Tracker's #TamilnaduElection2026 survey:
Seats and Vote %:
DMK: 172 – 178 (42.7%)
ADMK: 46 – 52 (30.3%)
TVK: 6 – 12 (19.2%)
NTK: 0 – 2 (5.1%)
OTH: 0 (2.8%)Verdict: Clear edge for DMK alliance. pic.twitter.com/zc6rDYiWBO
— Poll Tracker (@PollTracker) April 2, 2026
A separate Poll Tracker survey has echoed similar trends, projecting a return to power for the DMK with a 42.7% vote share and 172 to 178 seats. The AIADMK alliance is expected to secure 46 to 52 seats, while the TVK may win between 6 and 12 seats with a 19.2% vote share. The survey also indicates that voters prefer incumbent Chief Minister M. K. Stalin to continue in office, citing his experience over rivals such as Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Vijay.