Patna: Political dynamics in Bihar are shifting rapidly ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections, with a recent Lok Poll survey indicating a closely fought contest. The survey projects the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav, to win between 118 and 126 seats, while the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the BJP, is expected to secure 105 to 114 seats. Other parties are likely to claim 2 to 5 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
Vote share estimates suggest the Mahagathbandhan could capture 39% to 42% of the votes, compared to 38% to 41% for the NDA. The survey notes that Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Vote Chalein’ campaign and corruption allegations against NDA leaders have influenced voter sentiment. First-time and young voters are reportedly leaning toward the Mahagathbandhan, particularly attracted by Tejashwi Yadav’s promises of a “jobs-oriented government.”
Despite announcing several welfare schemes in recent months—including pensions for the elderly and widows, monthly financial support for unemployed youth, and 125 units of free electricity—the Nitish Kumar government may see limited electoral advantage from these initiatives. Analysts suggest that while such measures have long-term impact, pre-election announcements may not significantly influence voters, especially when opposition parties focus on employment and development. The survey indicates that changing voter alignments, particularly among youth and women, could signal a major political shift in Bihar.