- Ravi Prakash
A single question now dominates American politics: is the American voter about to deliver a hard shock to Donald Trump, and is the powerful House of Representatives about to slip out of Republican hands? The sensational shift visible in the corridors of Washington has also set off a lively debate in India over whether it will bring real relief to Indian professionals, students and employees living in the United States.
Polls point to a Democratic advantage
In a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from Oct. 16 to 19, only 31 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s performance. In the congressional ballot question, 47 percent of voters said they would choose Democrats and 35 percent said Republicans, giving the Democrats a 12-point lead.
The result is not an outlier. The Silver Bulletin national polling average as of Oct. 23 also shows the Democrats ahead by 9.1 points. There is little doubt that these are clear warning signals for the Republicans.
A national lead, however, does not guarantee the same result in every district. The local candidate, the intensity of the contest and voter turnout will be crucial. It is too early to declare that Trump has lost, but there is strong evidence that the coming elections will be a major headache for his party.
Will Trump’s power be checked?
Current projections show the Democrats with a strong chance of winning the House of Representatives, while the Senate race remains suspenseful. Republicans have a chance of retaining their majority there.
That points to a new and interesting power equation: Trump in the White House, Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in the House. Under such an arrangement, not every bill Trump wants would clear the House. Investigations into his administration could be launched, and officials could be summoned before committees and questioned.
At the same time, not every change the Democrats want would become law. Republicans in the Senate could block them, and Trump could use his veto power as president. It must be noted that a loss in the House would check Trump’s authority, but it would not erase the constitutional powers vested in the presidency.
American politics, Indian stakes
The politics now playing out in America have a direct bearing on a parent in Hyderabad, a student in the United States and an employee working on an H-1B visa. Visa policy is not merely a rule on paper. It is a job, a salary, a child’s education and a family’s future.
The Trump administration says it will protect American jobs and stop visa abuse. No one objects to investigating abuse and taking strict action where evidence exists. But policymakers must answer why, in the process, employees who work legally and honestly face such severe uncertainty, and why their families bear such a heavy mental burden.
A climate in which no one knows when a rule will change
A system that gives greater weight to higher salary levels in H-1B selection has come into effect. The opportunity has not been removed entirely for those at lower wage levels, but their chances of selection have fallen sharply compared with higher-paid applicants.
For an Indian student who has finished studies in America, whose family has spent heavily and who is seeking a first job, earning the salary of a senior professional with ten years of experience is almost impossible. At the very start of their careers, this weighted selection is becoming a major challenge for Indian youth.
The administration has also introduced heavy additional charges on certain H-1B petitions for bringing in new employees from abroad. Federal courts have blocked Trump’s decision that every H-1B employee must pay $100,000 (one lakh dollars). Even so, the policy uncertainty created by such announcements is frightening companies. Fearing that a rule may change tomorrow and that hiring a foreign employee may prove costly, companies are hesitating to sponsor visas. This has become a major obstacle for Indians.
The situation has reached the point where the government has put on hold new and pending Permanent Labor Certification applications linked to leading IT firms, including TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL, Cognizant and Capgemini, as well as Microsoft and Adobe. PERM is the most crucial stage in green card processing. When the permanent residency process stalls for an employee who has paid taxes for years and settled in the country, questions such as whether to buy a house, whether to change jobs and where to plan the children’s future shake the entire family.
For an employee on a visa, losing a job is a double blow, because legal status in America becomes uncertain. The administration has also proposed removing the current 60-day grace period altogether. If such rules are implemented, families could lose their rented home, their children’s school and their visa status all at once, and be forced to leave the country within moments.
Leaving the country, and the difficulty of returning
Even with a job offer and an approved H-1B petition, thousands are struggling to get the visa stamping interview appointment needed for travel. According to US State Department figures, the wait for petition-based visa interviews is six and a half months in Hyderabad and three and a half months in New Delhi. For students, waits of several months are being reported in Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi.
Even Indians who have a home, a job and a family in America are afraid to travel to India to see their parents. In some cases, H-1B employees who came to India were unable to return to the United States after their interviews were postponed. As a result, large companies are themselves warning employees not to travel abroad. Amid this uncertainty, the number of Indian students going to America has already fallen by 40 percent.
No overnight change, and no instant cure
Even if Trump’s party loses in Congress, he will remain president, so visa rules will not change the next day. But if the Democrats win the House, political pressure will mount on officials to explain why visa fees were raised, why companies’ applications were put on hold and why people must wait months for appointments.
It would be wrong to say that all Indians in America have lost their jobs. It would be equally wrong to assume that all problems will vanish in an instant if Trump loses.
Real relief will come only when employees can join work on time, students can travel without losing a semester, and people can visit their parents in India and return without anxiety. A country that wants talent must also give stability and security to the families behind that talent.
Whoever wins America’s elections, the victory benefits Indians only if it fills with assurance the lives of those who live there, or wish to live there. Let us hope for a day when Indians, who are mortgaging their freedom for the dollar, can live in America with dignity.
Make Indian Americans Great Again!