The bypoll results from Bihar’s Bankipur constituency — a seat that had remained an unshakeable bastion of the Bharatiya Janata Party for 30 years — have become a major talking point in national politics. The seat previously belonged to Nitin Nabin, who had won with a massive margin of 51,936 votes out of 98,299 polled, but this time it produced unexpected outcomes. Nabin, who had won four consecutive Assembly elections in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025, was elected BJP national president this January. Following his election to the Rajya Sabha in April, he resigned his MLA seat, necessitating this bypoll.
Nitin Nabin, who was serving merely as an MLA, was appointed BJP national president this January. His election to the Rajya Sabha in April led to his resignation from the MLA post. Around the same time in January, Bihar saw a change of chief minister, with Nitish Kumar being given a Rajya Sabha seat and Samrat Chaudhary appointed as Bihar’s BJP chief minister. It is well known that the BJP-led alliance had secured a resounding victory in the last Bihar elections.
However, in the counting of votes for this latest bypoll, Jan Suraaj Party chief and prominent political strategist Prashant Kishor delivered a major shock. Kishor, who had contested 238 seats in the last Bihar general election and lost deposits in 236 of them — facing severe criticism as a result — pulled off an unexpected win in this bypoll. The “Gen Z” youth movement that spread nationwide from Delhi’s Jantar Mantar following the NEET paper leak incident appears to have had a significant impact on BJP-ruled states. Young people becoming politically active, in a manner distinct from conventional political style, was reflected in this bypoll result. Political analysts believe that Prashant Kishor, having anticipated the impact of this youth movement in advance, crafted his strategy accordingly and was able to dent a BJP stronghold like Bankipur.
Following the Gen Z movement, the results of three Assembly bypolls held in BJP-ruled states came out mixed, but they are nonetheless causing concern for the saffron camp. In Madhya Pradesh’s Datia constituency, Congress candidate Ghanshyam Singh (54,169 votes) defeated his nearest BJP rival Ashutosh Tiwari. However, in Gujarat’s Manjalpur, BJP candidate Satish Patel retained the party’s hold by defeating Congress’s Bhikhabhai Rabari by a margin of 30,630 votes.
Looking at the BJP’s 17-year history in power — Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s six years and Narendra Modi’s eleven years of governance — a notable feature is that the party has largely not faced major public unrest. The Congress party, in contrast, previously faced severe public backlash in the form of the JP movement, the V.P. Singh revolt, and the Anna Hazare-led wave of protest, primarily driven by extensive corruption allegations against it. The BJP, despite ruling at the Centre for a long stretch, has not faced corruption allegations severe enough to cause it national embarrassment — and this has proven to be its biggest safeguard.
The development achieved by the BJP at the national level has two dimensions. On matters of science and technology, economic management, foreign policy, defence, and infrastructure creation, the central government’s performance can be given full marks. However, when it comes to people’s basic day-to-day facilities at the ground level, dissatisfaction is being expressed over the functioning of state governments. Issues such as the state of government hospitals and schools, and the lack of accountability among officials, are causing frustration among ordinary people.
As of 2018, the BJP was in power in states accounting for 80 percent of the states and 70 percent of the country’s population. By 2025, with some changes in states — for instance, Andhra Pradesh replacing Tamil Nadu in this equation — the party has managed to retain power at roughly the same scale. However, compared to the popularity and satisfaction the party enjoyed in 2018, public dissatisfaction over basic amenities is now growing. Even in Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath is credited with good governance, sharp criticism has emerged over traffic, policing, and local administration in key cities such as Noida. To reduce the backlash against governments, the BJP has been implementing a new political model — rather than saying “BJP government,” it now campaigns under labels such as “Mohan Yadav government” or “Bhupendra Patel government” in respective states. This ensures that any anti-incumbency generated at the constituency level lands on the chief minister’s personal standing rather than the party’s. Replacing the chief minister exactly a year before elections and heading into polls under new leadership has become a routine tactic for the BJP to effectively sidestep public anger.
While the BJP under Vajpayee functioned like a conventional political party, today’s BJP under Narendra Modi’s leadership operates with the precision of a “multinational company” (MNC). Even chief ministers’ interviews and podcasts follow a pre-determined strategy. Leaders such as Devendra Fadnavis, Yogi Adityanath, and Pushkar Singh Dhami are trained to speak in ways that avoid controversy. And even if election results go against the party, the BJP reportedly keeps strategies ready to come to power through what is termed “Operation Lotus.”
This strategy of replacing chief ministers before elections has delivered the BJP major victories in Gujarat, Haryana, and Uttarakhand. By sensing protests and public anger before they reach a destructive level and changing leadership in time, the BJP has continued to win. As long as Narendra Modi remains the national leader, large-scale revolts on the scale of the JP movement that Congress once faced may not occur. However, even though leadership changes provide temporary relief, the discontent building up internally could pose a risk to the party in the distant future.
The defeat in the Bankipur bypoll has reportedly triggered serious introspection within the BJP leadership. The fact that Nitin Nabin, soon after taking charge as national president, could not ensure the party’s victory in his own state and his own constituency has become a significant setback. Against this backdrop, there is information suggesting that along with a change in national president, there could be major changes in the Union Cabinet as well. Having already removed leaders such as Dharmendra Pradhan in the wake of the Gen Z movement’s impact, Modi is reportedly keen to give greater prominence to younger leaders in the coming days. There is also a possibility that the chief minister in UP could be changed, or a new chief ministerial candidate announced before the elections. Similarly, there is a chance of a reshuffle in the Union Cabinet as well.
Having already removed Dharmendra Pradhan amid the Gen Z-driven backlash, Modi may soon induct young MPs such as Tejasvi Surya and Raghav Chadha (to counter the styles of leaders from other parties) into the Union Cabinet in order to appeal to the growing base of young voters. Along similar lines, in states such as Telangana too, the high command is reportedly moving to sideline older-generation leaders such as N.V.S.S. Prabhakar and Ramchander Rao and hand over party responsibilities to a new generation of young leaders.
The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections (403 seats), due early next year, will determine the BJP’s future. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was restricted to just 33 of UP’s 80 seats, while the Samajwadi Party won 37 and Congress 6 — a significant shock. If similar results were to repeat in the Assembly elections, it would be a severe blow to the BJP. This is why, in light of the “Bihar effect,” the BJP is reportedly considering drastic decisions such as replacing the chief minister before the UP elections or announcing a new chief ministerial candidate ahead of the polls.
This political model being implemented by the BJP marks a novel chapter in the history of Indian democracy. While there is currently dissatisfaction among the public over BJP governance, a bigger question is to what extent voters actually want a Congress comeback. On one hand, there is apprehension among voters about how governance would look if Congress, having been out of power for a long stretch, were to return. On the other hand, the BJP continues to safeguard its hold on power by constantly recalibrating its strategies. Either way, it remains to be seen what turns Gen Z voters and shifting political equations will bring to the country’s politics in the days ahead.