Tehran/Washington: Iran has been in turmoil for the past 20 days, with large-scale protests erupting against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Millions of people have reportedly taken to the streets across the country, with thousands feared dead in the violence. The United States has openly expressed support for the protesters, with President Donald Trump warning of possible military action against Iran and imposing a 25 per cent tariff on countries continuing trade with Tehran. However, despite the intensity of the unrest, no full-scale revolt has taken place so far, and it remains unclear whether the protests will escalate into a decisive uprising.
Although demonstrations are directly targeting Khamenei, analysts say the movement has not yet reached the strength required to force his exit. Even as instability spreads, the Supreme Leader has shown no inclination to concede, instead reinforcing his grip on power. The growing opposition has raised questions about why Khamenei remains so powerful, the forces protecting him, and the reasons behind the surge in public anger decades after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled Shah Reza Pahlavi.
The roots of the current protests can be traced to early 2024, when Iran began facing severe economic and infrastructure challenges. Spiralling inflation, a sharp decline in the value of the rial, disruptions to electricity and gas supplies, and emerging water shortages significantly strained daily life. At the same time, tensions between Iran and the United States escalated, culminating in an American strike on an Iranian nuclear facility. The incident further weakened Iran’s economy and intensified public resentment.
The unrest escalated sharply from December 28, beginning with protests by shopkeepers in Tehran before spreading to universities and then nationwide. What initially began as economic demonstrations gradually transformed into a political movement demanding Khamenei’s resignation. The Iranian military and security forces responded with a crackdown, arresting protesters and using force in several locations. Reports indicate that nearly 3,000 people have been killed so far, including more than 100 members of the security forces.
Despite his advanced age, Ayatollah Khamenei has not fled the country and is believed to be staying at a highly secure, undisclosed location within Iran. He is said to be under a tight security shield and retains firm control over the intelligence agencies, armed forces and police. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran established a system that concentrated military authority under the office of the Supreme Religious Leader, significantly strengthening Khamenei’s position.
Unlike Shah Reza Pahlavi, who left Iran during the revolution, Khamenei has limited options to exit the country. As a key religious authority and a symbolic leader of the Shia Muslim world, his departure would carry wide-ranging implications beyond Iran.
Analysts say Khamenei believes fleeing Iran would damage his image across the Islamic world, particularly in the context of long-standing Shia–Sunni divisions. At 86, he has reportedly stated that he does not wish to be remembered as a leader who fled in his final years, preferring to face the situation from within the country.
At the same time, President Trump is said to be exercising caution in dealing directly with Khamenei. Uncertainty over who would assume control of Iran in the event of his removal has raised concerns about potential state collapse. Observers believe this uncertainty is one of the key reasons the United States is maintaining a measured approach toward Iran despite its strong rhetoric.