Oslo: As speculation builds ahead of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement, the question of whether US President Donald Trump will finally win the coveted award is once again drawing global attention. Despite repeated attempts in previous years, Trump has fallen short at the final stage each time, and signs suggest 2026 may follow the same pattern
Trump’s candidacy this year draws heavily on the Abraham Accords, the Israel-Arab peace agreements he helped broker. In recognition of this role, top leaders from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan nominated him for the prize. However, despite making the nominee list, several factors weigh heavily against his chances, chief among them his administration’s escalating military confrontation with Iran, which has placed him firmly in a war footing even as he vies for a peace prize. He also faces criticism over withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement and several international bodies, moves critics say have undermined global cooperation.
Compounding matters, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, last year’s Peace Prize laureate, gifted her Nobel medal to Trump — an episode that reportedly caught the Norwegian Nobel Committee off guard. Awarding Trump the prize this year, some observers believe, would now appear to the Committee as succumbing to political pressure. The Committee has historically never awarded the Peace Prize to a leader actively engaged in military confrontation or fostering a war-like atmosphere, and experts say Trump’s assertive posture on Iran has all but extinguished his chances this time around.
A total of 287 nominations were received for this year’s prize. While Trump’s name is certain to have made it onto the nominee list on the strength of endorsements from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, it is expected to fall behind by the time the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee finalises its shortlist.
When the winners are announced in Oslo on October 9, the International Space Station and international human rights organisations — seen as symbols of global cooperation — are considered more likely recipients than Trump. Overall, indications suggest that the Nobel Peace Prize is likely to remain an unfulfilled ambition for Trump once again this year.