Japan, one of the most advanced and powerful nations in the world, is set to redefine its identity. Tokyo, which has so far stood as the country’s sole capital and central hub, will no longer hold that status alone. Driven by fears of severe earthquakes and natural disasters, the Japanese Parliament has passed a historic law to establish a “second capital” (backup capital) for the country. Notably, the bill passed the upper house by the narrowest of majorities.
According to seismologists and Bloomberg reports, there is up to a 70 percent chance of a major earthquake measuring 7 or higher striking Tokyo within the next 30 years. Should that happen, the city of Tokyo risks being reduced to rubble within moments. The Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, and the entire banking system of the country would come to a standstill all at once. It is precisely to protect the nation and its administration from such devastation that Prime Minister Takaichi’s government has drawn up this master plan.
Beyond just the fear of earthquakes, the ever-increasing population pressure in Tokyo is also a major reason behind this decision. Currently, 30 percent of Japan’s total population resides in Tokyo alone, and a fifth of the country’s income comes from this single city. The government believes that power and wealth should not remain concentrated in one place. The city chosen as the second capital is expected to attract billions in new investment, which would transform the region’s landscape entirely.
As soon as the law was passed in Parliament, competition began among several developed regions of Japan for the status of second capital. Under the law, the opportunity will go to a city that is both safe from earthquakes and capable of running the government. Currently, Osaka, Nagoya (Aichi Prefecture), Fukuoka, and Sapporo are at the front of this race.
Osaka is Japan’s largest and most powerful city after Tokyo. It has served as the country’s economic powerhouse for centuries, which is why it is seen as having the strongest chance in the race for second capital. Similarly, the governors of Nagoya and Fukuoka, along with local business leaders, are strongly arguing that their cities have all the qualifications needed to serve as the capital.
Sapporo, another major city, is making a different case. This city is located far from Tokyo. Sapporo’s proponents argue that, should natural disasters like a tsunami or earthquake strike Tokyo in the future, Sapporo would remain completely safe, allowing the country’s administration to continue without any disruption. Although Osaka currently leads the race to become the second capital, Japanese scientists warn that a major threat looms over it as well. Reports make clear that a potential devastating earthquake in the ‘Nankai Trough’ region could result in a third of Osaka city being submerged underwater.
This new law has also triggered intense political controversy in Japan. Opposition parties allege that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi caved in to pressure from coalition partner the ‘Japan Innovation Party’ (JIP) in order to protect her position. They criticize that this decision was made because Osaka is a strong stronghold for the JIP. While it remains unclear when and how government offices will be relocated to the new city, there is no doubt that this decision has dealt a blow to Tokyo’s dominance.