Iran’s political situation has undergone a significant transformation amid escalating tensions following reported US-Israel strikes, with indications that authority has increasingly shifted towards military hardliners. According to international media reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s governance structure, raising concerns over the country’s internal balance of power and external policy direction.
Reports suggest that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently undergoing treatment for serious injuries, creating a leadership vacuum that has enabled the IRGC to expand its influence. Within this evolving power structure, Major General Ahmad Vahidi is said to have become one of the most influential figures, supported by senior officials including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.
Analysts note that moderate elements within the Iranian political system have been increasingly sidelined from key decision-making processes. Strategic discussions related to foreign policy, including engagement with the United States and maritime security in the Hormuz Strait, are now reportedly dominated by IRGC leadership, reducing the scope for diplomatic flexibility.
Tensions in the region have further intensified following reported incidents in the Persian Gulf, where vessels were allegedly targeted, disrupting key shipping routes. The situation has raised concerns over global energy security, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for international oil transport and is reportedly under heightened Iranian military influence.
International security analysts, including those from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warn that the growing dominance of the IRGC could further complicate diplomatic negotiations and escalate regional instability. With uncertainty surrounding Iran’s leadership and increasing military control over state functions, concerns are mounting over the country’s trajectory and its impact on broader Middle East stability.