An intensifying El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, now combining with global warming, is threatening to grip the planet, sparking worldwide alarm. The UK Met Office has issued warnings that an exceptionally powerful El Niño — unprecedented in recorded history — is on its way, one that could rewrite past records and trigger severe heatwaves and droughts across the globe. Scientists estimate that with rising global warming, driven by climate change and industrial emissions, compounding this natural phenomenon, 2027 is set to become the hottest year ever recorded in history. Significant disruptions in monsoon patterns and rainfall distribution are already being observed worldwide, with farmers struggling due to inadequate rainfall.
What Exactly Is El Niño?
El Niño refers to the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean beyond normal levels. This irregular climatic phenomenon, which typically occurs once every 2 to 7 years, exerts its influence for roughly a year at a time. It occurs when winds blowing from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean weaken, causing warm water to flow toward the eastern Pacific and releasing enormous thermal energy into the atmosphere. Scientists generally classify a rise of 0.5 degrees Celsius above average sea surface temperature in the Pacific region as an El Niño event. However, experts are alarmed that current Pacific Ocean temperatures are running as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.
The UK Met Office’s latest projections indicate that this could rise to 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this year. Beyond the surface, temperatures at depths of nearly 100 metres in the ocean are running 8 degrees Celsius above normal. This deep layer of warm water is functioning like a massive reservoir, supplying the energy needed for the El Niño to persist and intensify over an extended period.
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the US-based research group Berkeley Earth, has stated that this could turn out to be the strongest El Niño recorded in the past 100 years, or even the past 500 years, noting that nothing like this has occurred since 1950.
The massive release of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere is completely altering global wind patterns. As a result, El Niño is expected to have a severely adverse impact on the southwest monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall across India and other South Asian countries. This raises the risk of drought-like conditions, worsening shortages of drinking and irrigation water, and the looming threat of severe drought.
In Australia, Southeast Asia, and southern Africa, the intensity of heat is expected to rise to record levels, drying up reservoirs entirely. Scientists warn that this could not only bring devastating droughts but also trigger the risk of severe wildfires spreading across forests. Meanwhile, regions closer to the Pacific Ocean — including Peru, Ecuador, South America, and the southern United States — are likely to see unusually dense cloud cover and heavy rainfall, raising the risk of flooded residential areas, catastrophic floods, and landslides. Areas around the UK face an increased risk of unusually heavy rainfall, destructive cold winds, and storms. At the same time, the storm systems that typically form over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic regions have significantly weakened.
Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, noted that the enormous thermal energy released from the oceans during an El Niño event takes some time to fully manifest in the atmosphere, meaning that the impact on global temperatures is likely to intensify further once this winter ends. As a result, he said, the record high temperatures recorded in 2024 are set to be shattered, with 2027 poised to become the hottest year in Earth’s recorded history.
According to a recent report by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, this El Niño event is expected to damage crop yields worldwide, plunging the agricultural sector into a severe crisis. The report warned that food security would be severely affected in already impoverished nations grappling with hunger and poverty, as prices of essential goods rise sharply.